链游的未来展望 | Future Outlook of GameFi

在区块链领域,链游曾被视为下一个爆发点,但上一轮牛熊周期的转换暴露了其内在脆弱性。以 Axie Infinity 为例,这个项目一度风靡全球,用户通过养殖虚拟宠物赚取代币,看似创新的游戏模式,实际上更接近一个金融赌场:玩家投入资金,主要不是为了沉浸式娱乐,而是寄希望于 “Play to Earn” 机制带来的高回报预期。牛市时,社区活跃、价格飙升;熊市到来,用户流失严重,项目价值大幅缩水。这让我在开发 WarSpore · Saga(以下简称 Saga) 时,不断反思链游的本质:它只能是投机工具,还是有办法做到真正提供持久价值的娱乐形式?

传统链游的繁荣往往建立在市场泡沫之上,而区块链的强周期特性决定了这些泡沫不可避免地会最终破灭。只有通过内容价值驱动,让玩家真正愿意为游戏体验付费,链游才能获得穿越周期的韧性。所以 Saga 不是抽象理论,它既要验证 CKB 的基础设施潜力,同时还要努力为链游的发展勾勒出一条渐进、可复制的演化路径——从金融主导转向内容共创。

继承传统的桥接

传统链游的核心玩法通常以 PVE 和 PVP 为主,这样的模式在上一个 GameFi 周期中已经经过了市场检验,虽然经济模型最后不可避免的会走向崩盘,但市场已经广泛接受了这样的产品形态:PVE 涉及玩家通过与环境互动来进行资源采集,而 PVP 则设计玩家间通过对抗来分配资源。这些设计精准契合了区块链用户的投机心理,玩家手持代币如同握着赌场筹码,通过游戏化的博弈追求收益:金融逻辑主导一切,游戏性被边缘化,许多链游项目本质上只是 DeFi 的变体。

这样的模式难以长期成立:

  1. 首先,它高度依赖外部市场情绪。在牛市中,代币价格上涨吸引大量投机者,形成虚假繁荣,但熊市一来,缺乏内在乐趣的项目将迅速崩盘,用户不会因为 “有趣” 而坚持下去。

  2. 其次,泡沫的本质决定了不可持续性——像 Axie 这样的案例,早期用户通过代币套利获利,但后期新入者面临通胀和崩盘风险,整个生态如沙上楼阁,区块链的强周期还会放大这些问题,导致每轮牛熊转换时,都会戳破这些项目的泡沫。

尽管如此,完全抛弃 PVE 和 PVP 并不明智,因为继承这些模式有必要的现实考量:区块链用户群体天然偏向投机,他们更容易接受类似于 “赌场” 的玩法,甚至很多用户就是冲着这种刺激来的。这时,如果贸然推出一个 ”纯玩法导向“ 的链游,将会面临巨大的风险——用户教育成本高企,适应期漫长,项目可能在市场验证前就失败。所以,真正的创新需要渐进式地积累:从用户已知的起点出发,逐步注入新的元素,降低门槛的同时慢慢引导用户行为和习惯的变迁。

Saga 正是基于这个思路设计的,虽然 PVE 和 PVP 的设计在保留传统链游模式的低学习门槛的同时,让游戏性和金融激励达到相对平衡,但不管怎样,优化了游戏性缺陷的赌场本质上仍是赌场,只有下放游戏内容的创作权限,才能真正引导链游进入穿越牛熊的时代。

从零和博弈转向价值共创

传统链游偏向 “赌场” 模式的根源在于开发高质量游戏内容的成本过高。项目方为快速迭代和上线,往往选择低门槛的金融博弈设计,让玩家用代币作为筹码互相竞争。这种方式在牛市环境下容易制造热度,却忽略了游戏的核心驱动力——丰富的内容生态。没有内容作为锚点,链游就难以在熊市中留住用户,因为玩家付费的动机只是赌未来的高回报,而不是对游戏体验的真正认可。要想让链游穿越周期,就必须重塑激励机制:链游的金融性从零和博弈转向价值分配,玩家从金融投机者变成价值生产者和内容消费者。

UGC 正是这个转变的关键方向,它拆解了传统模式的局限,将内容创作权下放给社区:玩家通过质押游戏代币创建 “编年碎片”——这些以 NFT 形式存在的文本片段,不是孤立的元素,而是可以相互连接、共同构建游戏的世界观,甚至延续前作的叙事线。这样的设计能让玩家从单纯的竞争者,转变为与开发者合作的共创者,项目方用游戏产生的收益回馈那些贡献优质内容的用户,从此,玩家的付费动机将发生本质变化:他们不再是为了博取高收益而付费,而是真正愿意为游戏的体验付费。

这种模式的益处显而易见,它直接降低了游戏项目方的内容生产负担。传统游戏中,开发者需要不断推出更新或者活动来维持活力,这容易陷入资源耗尽的困境。UGC 能利用社区的集体智慧,创造无限扩展的可能性,同时它还能强化玩家的归属感,因为游戏内容不再是自上而下的馈赠,而是集体共建的成果,因此相比传统赌场的空洞,UGC 能让链游回归娱乐本质:付费是为了沉浸式体验,而不是盲目的跟风赌博。

内容工作室

当 UGC 模式逐步普及后,它必定会引发链游生态的深层变革:在传统链游里的 “打金工作室” ,很可能会通过 UGC 工具转型成为游戏的内容生产者。这会是一场彻彻底底的范式转移,游戏玩家能通过 UGC 工具随时成为游戏的内容创作者,与背后的游戏开发团队共享游戏收益,链游玩家从此将不再作为对手盘站在开发团队的对立面,而是一起共同创造、共享收益、互利共赢,这才是链游未来的发展之路。

Saga 的协作叙事模块将预示这种底层形态的转换潜力,虽然目前不涉及到核心的游戏玩法的协作共创,上限不高,但实现容易、足够独立、容错性高,我认为将游戏背景故事作为共创内容是踏上这场范式转移之路的值得试验的一步。

长远来看,UGC 类链游的兴起还能重塑整个链游行业的格局:从小规模赌场模式,转向类似 Roblox 的社区驱动平台,用户参与的形式从被动消费转为主动贡献。整体而言,UGC 模式的引入扩展了 Saga 的愿景,突出它作为 BTC 生态首款全链游戏的价值——不仅优化了当前链游所面对的低游戏行的问题,还为未来链游生态的发展指明了方向。

结语

面对链游传统模式的缺陷,我们不是要彻底推翻,而是作为行业发展和步入创新的起点,因为创新的基础是必须要尊重市场现实,贸然大跨步的创新往往意味着高昂的试错成本,我们只有慢慢地引导投机导向的用户转向内容付费,链游行业才能实现进步。

WarSpore · Saga 是我对于这条发展道路的实际探索,它将证明在 CKB 上贯彻全链技术的可行性和潜力,也在向整个社区发出邀请:链游的未来,不在于泡沫破灭前的短暂喧闹,而在于携手共创内容的持久光芒。

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The Future of GameFi: Perspective from WarSpore · Saga

In the blockchain space, GameFi was once seen as the next explosive trend, but the transition through the last bull-bear cycle exposed its inherent fragility. Take Axie Infinity as an example: this project once swept the globe, with users breeding virtual pets to earn tokens. What appeared to be an innovative gaming model was, in reality, closer to a financial casino — players invested capital not primarily for immersive entertainment, but in anticipation of high returns promised by the “Play to Earn” mechanism. In bull markets, communities thrived and prices soared; when the bear market arrived, users fled in droves and project value collapsed dramatically.

This experience led me, during the development of WarSpore · Saga (hereafter referred to as Saga), to repeatedly reflect on the true nature of GameFi: must it remain merely a speculation tool, or is there a way to build it into a form of entertainment that delivers lasting value?

The prosperity of traditional GameFi has often been built on market bubbles, and the strong cyclical nature of blockchain ensures that such bubbles will inevitably burst. Only by shifting to content-value-driven models — making players genuinely willing to pay for the gaming experience — can GameFi develop the resilience to survive market cycles. Therefore, Saga is not abstract theory; it aims both to validate the infrastructure potential of Nervos CKB and to outline a gradual, replicable evolutionary path for the industry — from finance-dominated to content co-creation.

Inheriting Tradition as a Bridge

The core gameplay of traditional GameFi typically revolves around PVE and PVP — modes that were thoroughly battle-tested during the previous GameFi cycle. Although their economic models ultimately collapsed, the market had already widely accepted this product form: PVE involves players interacting with the environment to gather resources, while PVP designs direct player-versus-player competition for resource allocation.

These designs precisely match the speculative psychology of blockchain users: players hold tokens like casino chips, pursuing profits through gamified competition. Financial logic dominates everything, while gameplay is marginalized. Many GameFi projects are essentially just variants of DeFi.

This model is difficult to sustain long-term for two main reasons:

  1. It is highly dependent on external market sentiment. In bull markets, rising token prices attract hordes of speculators, creating illusory prosperity. But when the bear market hits, projects lacking intrinsic fun collapse rapidly — users will not stay simply because the game is “fun.”

  2. The bubble nature itself determines unsustainability. In cases like Axie, early users profited through token arbitrage, but late entrants faced inflation and crash risks. The entire ecosystem was built on sand, and blockchain’s strong cyclicality only amplifies these problems, causing bubbles to burst with every bull-bear transition.

Despite this, completely abandoning PVE and PVP would be unwise. There are practical reasons to inherit these modes: blockchain users are naturally speculation-oriented; they are more receptive to “casino-like” mechanics and many are drawn precisely by that thrill. If one were to abruptly launch a purely gameplay-oriented GameFi project, it would face enormous risks — high user education costs, long adaptation periods, and likely failure before market validation.

True innovation requires gradual accumulation: starting from what users already know, slowly injecting new elements, lowering barriers while progressively guiding changes in user behavior and habits.

Saga is designed precisely along these lines. While its PVE and PVP retain the low learning threshold of traditional GameFi modes and achieve a relative balance between gameplay and financial incentives, an optimized casino remains a casino at its core. Only by decentralizing the right to create game content can GameFi truly be guided into an era that survives bull and bear markets.

From Zero-Sum Games to Value Co-Creation

The root cause of traditional GameFi’s bias toward “casino” models lies in the extremely high cost of developing high-quality game content. To iterate quickly and launch, project teams often choose low-barrier financial competition designs that let players use tokens as chips to compete against each other. This approach easily generates hype in bull markets but completely overlooks the core driver of gaming — a rich content ecosystem.

Without content as an anchor, GameFi struggles to retain users in bear markets, because players pay only in hopes of future high returns, not out of genuine recognition of the experience. To enable GameFi to cross cycles, the incentive mechanism must be reshaped: the financial aspect shifts from zero-sum competition to value distribution; players evolve from financial speculators into value producers and content consumers.

UGC (User-Generated Content) is precisely the key direction for this transformation. It breaks the limitations of traditional models by decentralizing content creation to the community: players stake game tokens to create “Chronicle Fragments” — NFT-based text snippets that are not isolated elements, but can interconnect and collectively build the game’s world view, even extending narratives from previous works.

This design transforms players from pure competitors into co-creators collaborating with developers. Project teams reward users who contribute high-quality content with a share of the game’s generated revenue. From this point on, the motivation for players to pay undergoes a fundamental change: they no longer pay in hopes of high returns, but are genuinely willing to pay for the game experience itself.

The benefits of this model are obvious. It directly reduces the content production burden on project teams. In traditional games, developers must continually release updates or events to maintain vitality, easily falling into resource exhaustion. UGC harnesses the collective intelligence of the community, creating unlimited expansion possibilities while strengthening players’ sense of belonging — game content is no longer top-down handouts, but collectively built achievements.

Compared to the emptiness of traditional casinos, UGC allows GameFi to return to the essence of entertainment: payment is for immersive experience, not blind trend-following gambling.

Content Studios

Once the UGC model gradually becomes widespread, it will inevitably trigger profound changes in the GameFi ecosystem. The “gold-farming studios” of traditional GameFi are very likely to transform — through UGC tools — into genuine content producers for the game.

This represents a complete paradigm shift: game players can become content creators at any time using UGC tools, sharing game revenue with the development team behind them. GameFi players will no longer stand as counterparties in opposition to developers; instead, they will co-create, share benefits, and achieve mutual win-win outcomes. This is the true future path for GameFi.

Saga’s collaborative narrative module foreshadows the potential of this underlying transformation. Although it does not yet involve collaborative co-creation of core gameplay (with limited upside), it is easy to implement, sufficiently independent, and highly fault-tolerant. I believe starting with game background lore as co-created content is a worthwhile experimental step on the road to this paradigm shift.

In the long run, the rise of UGC-style GameFi can reshape the entire industry landscape: moving away from small-scale casino models toward community-driven platforms similar to Roblox, where user participation shifts from passive consumption to active contribution.

Overall, the introduction of the UGC model extends Saga’s vision and highlights its value as the first fully on-chain game in the BTC ecosystem — not only addressing the low gameplay quality issues facing current GameFi, but also pointing the direction for the future development of the GameFi ecosystem.

Conclusion

Facing the flaws of traditional GameFi models, we do not need to completely overthrow them; rather, we should treat them as the starting point for industry development and innovation. Because meaningful innovation must respect market reality — rash, large leaps often come with extremely high trial-and-error costs. Only by gradually guiding speculation-oriented users toward paying for content value can the GameFi industry truly progress.

WarSpore · Saga is my practical exploration of this development path. It will demonstrate the feasibility and potential of fully implementing on-chain technology on CKB, and it extends an invitation to the entire community: the future of GameFi does not lie in the fleeting noise before bubbles burst, but in the enduring light of collaborative content creation.

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刚好前几天在X上看到了篇关于Web3游戏的推文,贴过来参考下:

第一代 Web3 游戏失败不是因为“区块链不行”,而是把激励、资产、治理金融化得太早、太重;真正可行的方向不是 Play-to-Earn,而是像广告系统一样可衡量、可定价、抗作弊的 Rewarded Play(奖励驱动增长),而且对用户尽量隐藏“crypto”。 核心观点浓缩版 :

一、Web3 游戏最初的七大“信仰”,大多被现实击穿 包括资产所有权、P2E、互操作、社区治理、协议所有权等—— 不是理念蠢,而是底层假设错了: 玩家行为 ≠ 投资人行为 游戏经济 ≠ 金融市场 “永恒资产” ≠ Live Service 游戏现实

二、资产所有权:理念正确,但和游戏商业模式天然冲突 资产完全可流通 → 未来玩家的钱不再进游戏,而是进老玩家口袋 开发者收入被持续“抽干” 玩家带着“资产保值/升值”预期进入 → 经济、舆论、运营全部变形 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 结论:强资产所有权 = 弱游戏变现能力

三、Play-to-Earn 没死,但第一代注定崩 Axie 证明了:Token 能在极短时间内买到海量注意力 崩盘原因不是“没人想赚钱”,而是: 通胀型代币 激励 > 内容 市场一 repricing,系统直接崩溃 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 正确结论不是“P2E 死了”,而是: 激励是有效的获客工具,但必须像成本一样被精细管理

四、Pixels 的真实经验:激励获客极其强,但敌人是产业化的 Pixels 用 play-to-airdrop: DAU 从 1k → 数万 → 10 万 → 百万 几乎 0 买量成本 但真正撞墙的是:规模化作弊 Bot 不是脚本,是“公司” 真设备 + 防检测浏览器 + VPN 链上流动性 = 即时套利 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 关键认知转变: “检测机器人”这条路已经死了

五、关键转向:不识别 Bot,而是识别「意图」 从“这是谁”转为: 他在做什么? 是否有长期价值? 奖励是否真的改变了行为? 这已经不再是游戏设计问题,而是广告系统问题。

六、Rewarded Play 唯一能活的形态:像现代广告一样运作 要同时解决 4 件事: 定向:什么用户、什么时机给奖励 定价:最小可行奖励 归因:是不是奖励真的带来增量 设计即反作弊:让作弊无利可图 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 奖励不是“任务 + 发钱”,而是一个动态系统

七、真钱进入核心循环,玩家心理彻底改变 玩家不再问“好不好玩” 而是问“我赚没赚钱” 结果: F2P 的常规变现手段全部失效 一旦感觉“亏钱”,哪怕很开心,也会愤怒 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 更接近可持续的模式是: 低抽成、透明规则(类似扑克 rake) 接受输赢,而不是“赌场式榨取”

八、一个残酷现实:奖励最有效的地方,LTV 最低 低收入地区对 $1 奖励极度敏感 高收入、高 LTV 用户基本无感 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 没有精准定向 = 预算被低价值用户和农场吃光。

九、互操作、社区、治理:理想很美,经济上没人买单 互操作:好听,但没人愿意为它付钱 社区:金融化后变成“盯盘群” 治理:早期去中心化 ≈ 集体决策崩溃 👉|20.39583396911621x20.39583396911621 大多数“Web3 理想”顺序错了。

十、一个非常重要的市场信号 “Crypto 奖励”广告的转化率,比“现金奖励”差 5–10 倍 结论: Crypto 可以是机制 但绝不能是卖点

最终方向:下一代赢家长什么样? 不是: NFT 游戏 Play-to-Earn Quest 平台 Token 叙事 而是: 奖励像广告一样可测量、可优化 默认假设存在规模化作弊 Web2-first,crypto-silent 数据科学是护城河 Pixels 的新路线 Chubkins:Web2 思维的 F2P 游戏(先验证“好玩 + 赚钱”) Stacked:Rewarded Play 基础设施 SDK + 定向 + 动态定价 + 归因 + 反作弊 目标:$1 奖励 → $1.50 回报

最后的结论 Web3 游戏第一周期输在意识形态, 下一周期的赢家靠的是运营科学。 激励确实能改变行为,但前提是—— 把它当科学,而不是口号。

原文:(1) X 上的 Luke Barwikowski :tractor::“Web3 Gaming Didn’t Meet Expectations. Rewarded Play Will.” / X

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有一定道理,虽然实操性较差,但至少指出了一些方向,总结下来感觉要么是输赢自负、不怪系统,要么为体验付费,目的都是为了真正把 Tokenomics 跑起来,而不是仅靠泡沫支撑,这点和我的想法不谋而合