一文读懂 NFT 的价值与未来

本文结构:

  • 价值究竟是什么
  • 价值的来源是什么
  • NFT 的价值来源
  • 未来

一、价值的主观性

正式开始之前,需要先把价值本身搞清楚。而价值本身的内涵至少包含两个互相重叠的含义:有用程度和贵重程度。例如,张三认为一个人的价值就是他拥有的车和房的价值。这句话就包含了两种价值含义。这里明确本文谈的价值含义偏向于后者,即:价值 = 商品在交易市场上的贵重程度

经济学上关于价值的争论历史悠久,正面谈论价值的定义比较困难,我们尝试从价值不是什么谈起。

首先,价值不是成本。把100块钱的石油和100块钱的蚝油混在一起,并不能得到价值200块的新产品。如果你定义成本是“有价值的成本”或“有意义的付出”,那么等于循环定义了价值。这并不能解释价值本身。

其次,价值不是客观量,不同的人同一个商品有不同的价值评估。所谓”彼之蜜糖,吾之砒霜“,说的就是这个道理。沙漠里的人对水的看法和湖边的人显然不同。边际效用理论实际上也是支持了主观价值的观点。

接着,价值不等于实用性,即有用程度越高不代表越贵重。历史上著名的”水和钻石悖论“告诉我们,水对人至关重要,但钻石的价值远高于水。

最后,价值不是稀缺的代名词。有价值的商品一定稀缺。反之则不然,你我的小学作业全世界只有一份,可惜没什么价值。

顺便讲一下主观价值论一个小推论。假设有人用¥2.5买了一瓶可乐。这并不是说买卖双方认为¥2.5的价值 = 一瓶可乐。而是卖方认为¥2.5的价值高于一瓶可乐,而买方则相反,这才促成了交易,交易的结果使得两个人的收益都增加了。因此世界上从来不存在等价交换。两个东西如果对双方的价值完全相等,那为什么要交换呢,多浪费精力啊。

二、价值共识

可是价值的主观性似乎又和我们的常识不符,我们都知道正常情况下猪肉多少钱一斤,纯净水多少钱一瓶。哪怕你再口渴,小卖部通常也不会加价卖给你。这里就引出来了另一个概念,即价值共识

每个人对每个商品的价值评估形成了一个共识,这种共识达成后,人们不但对该商品对于自己的价值有了认知,同时对它对于其他人的价值也有了认知。所以市场价格体现的是群体的价值共识,而不是某个个体的价值认知。

但价值共识究竟是怎么形成的呢。我认为大概有三种来源。其一是来自客观实用性,由于大家对某商品的实用性有共识,并且人们对其价值评估主要基于其实用性,那么大家就自然可以形成价值共识。典型的商品为日常消费品,食品,日常服务等。其二是来自法定,典型的如货币。 法律规定了主权货币的法偿性、税收单位,使得人们对其被接受程度有所共识认知。其三就是对商品背后的故事、情感、叙事、社群的认可或共鸣。 典型的如人物形象,电影,音乐,艺术品等,人们知道TA所喜欢的故事也被别人喜欢,这就是社群共识。

三、NFT 的价值

由此,我们可以得出 NFT 的价值可以来自三个方面:

  • 客观实用性: 如代表门票、版权、数字专辑、游戏道具等权益,它的价值就是背后代表的实际商品的价值
  • 法定性: 如代表数字身份,持有不同的身份 NFT 能够在平台做不同的业务
  • 情感与叙事: 例如数字艺术、畅销书作者的签名、明星出道纪念、大学毕业纪念等

目前的大多数 NFT 平台往往聚焦于两个小领域,一个是数字艺术品,例如视觉艺术;另一个是内在实用性,主要包括版权和游戏道具。但事实上,真正最大的需求和价值来源应该是更广泛的情感与叙事领域。这也是人类社会存在的最广泛、最坚实的共识。

这种对情感与叙事的共识的价值化凝结并不是一个新的东西。早在互联网出现之前,实体专辑、海报,毕业照片,纪念日活动甚至古代的家族纹章,权杖,玉玺等等都是所谓人脑”想象的共同体“在现实世界的实体化映射。这种映射使得无形的影响力可以化为有形的价值载体,在物理世界流转,并与想象世界相互影响。

互联网的出现让全世界拥有相近思想,持有相同情感认知的人能够迅速在网上建构起社区。这种社区未必是固定的论坛,任何一个社交媒体的评论区甚至点赞,都能够把一群人连接起来。他们在某个特定的垂直领域有共同的认知,相同的价值取向,并认可相同的价值。

但直到区块链和 NFT 的出现,虚拟网络构建的价值才得以以最低的成本实体化。这种”实体化“就是 NFT。它限量,有权属,不可分割,它就是数字世界的实物。

四、常见的错误认知

谈到此,我们终于可以逐一批判现在流行的一些错误的认知了。其实对 NFT 的错误认知有一大半源自对区块链或者价值网络的错误认知,下面部分问题把 NFT 换成 Bitcoin 基本上也没问题。

错误:NFT 谁都可以把原图拷贝一份再发一遍,因此没有价值
解答:重要的不是图,而是故事。形成共识的是故事,是情感。寺庙门口卖的开光御守和淘宝卖的工厂尾单品质上没有区别,但人们只会消费前者。大家买单的是背后的东西。人人都可以发转运卡,但只有杨超越自己发的才有价值。

错误:NFT 的图片必须放到 ipfs 上,中心化托管是不行的
解答:同上,图不重要。明星项目 CryptoPunks 链上甚至没有图的链接,只有 hash。相关资源放到去中心化存储当然更好,但不放也没任何问题。

错误:NFT 必须包含版权声明
解答:盗版已有的 NFT 没有价值。反过来说,只要社区认可,即使不是原版权所有人发行的 NFT,可能也有价值共识。

错误:NFT 泡沫极大,全是黄牛在炒
解答:这句话前一半没错,NFT 市场明显有泡沫,而且 NFT 的价格可操作性很高。但 NFT 本身是有价值基础的,并不是单纯黄牛可以吵起来的。黄牛更好地做了价格发现机制,但最终决定价格的是对社区价值认可的收藏者。

错误:NFT 最好的平台是联盟链
解答:联盟链做 NFT 没有意义,因为它活的不够长。人们之所以愿意收藏 NFT,是因为它具备了信息互联网时代不具有稀缺性和权属属性。而所有权最忌讳不确定性和不稳定性,这两点恰恰是联盟链的缺点。试想你在 xx 链上获得了你最爱的歌手的最后一场演唱会的限量 NFT。结果两年后这条链随着其发起方的业务调整关闭了。你会有什么感想?

五、NFT 的未来

NFT 的未来在于把全世界亿万个社区的共识价值化,并且它正在以不可抗拒的步伐前进。艺术、游戏、版权等都只是这个大的未来中的一小片图景。很快,有影响力的人,IP 方,组织就会开始铸造和分发自己的 NFT。他们或者是一个签名,或者是一张表情,或者是一个勋章,或者是一个护身符,它会以任何的形式涌现。但它一定是被该社区高度认可的,有价值的东西。社区外的人可能完全看不懂,甚至嗤之以鼻,就像我们现在看价值 6900 万美元的 Beeple NFT 画作一样。

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Structure of this article:

  • What is value
  • What is the source of value
  • The source of value of NFT future

1. The subjectivity of value

Before officially starting, you need to figure out the value itself. The connotation of value itself contains at least two overlapping meanings: usefulness and preciousness. For example, Zhang San believes that the value of a person is the value of the car and house he owns. This sentence contains two value meanings. Here it is clear that the meaning of value discussed in this article is biased towards the latter, namely: value = how valuable the commodity is in the trading market.

The debate on value in economics has a long history. It is difficult to talk positively about the definition of value. We try to start from what value is not.

First, value is not cost. Mixing 100 yuan of oil with 100 yuan of oyster sauce does not get a new product worth 200 yuan. If you define cost as “valuable cost” or “meaningful contribution”, then it is equal to the cycle defining value. This does not explain the value itself.

Secondly, value is not an objective quantity. Different people have different valuations of the same commodity. The so-called “He’s honey, my arsenic” is the truth. People in the desert have a different view of the water than those in the lake. The marginal utility theory actually supports the viewpoint of subjective value. Next, value does not mean practicality, that is, the higher the degree of usefulness, the more valuable it is. The famous “Water and Diamond Paradox” in history tells us that water is very important to people, but the value of diamonds is much higher than water. Finally, value is not synonymous with scarcity. Valuable goods must be scarce. The opposite is not true. There is only one elementary school homework for you and me in the world, which is of little value.

By the way, let’s talk about a small inference of subjective value theory. Suppose someone buys a bottle of Coke for ¥2.5. This is not to say that buyers and sellers believe that the value of ¥2.5 = a bottle of Coke. It is the seller who believes that the value of ¥2.5 is higher than a bottle of Coke, while the buyer is the opposite, which facilitates the transaction, and the result of the transaction increases the income of both people. Therefore, there has never been an equivalent exchange in the world. If two things are of equal value to both sides, why should they be exchanged? What a waste of energy.

2. Value consensus

However, the subjectivity of value seems to be inconsistent with our common sense. We all know how much pork costs a catty and how much pure water costs a bottle under normal circumstances. Even if you are thirsty again, the commissary will usually not sell it to you at a price increase. Here comes another concept, namely value consensus. Everyone has formed a consensus on the value evaluation of each commodity. After this consensus is reached, people not only have a cognition of the value of the commodity to themselves, but also the value of it to other people. Therefore, the market price reflects the value consensus of the group, not the value cognition of an individual.

But how exactly is the value consensus formed? I think there are probably three sources. One is from objective practicality. Since everyone has a consensus on the practicality of a certain product, and people’s evaluation of its value is mainly based on its practicality, then everyone can naturally form a value consensus. Typical commodities are daily consumer goods, food, daily services, etc. The second is from statutory, typically currency. The law stipulates the legal compensation and taxation unit of sovereign currency, which makes people have a consensus on its acceptance. The third is the recognition or resonance of the story, emotion, narrative, and community behind the product. Typically, such as character images, movies, music, artwork, etc., people know that the stories they like are also liked by others. This is the consensus of the community.

3. The value of NFT

From this, we can conclude that the value of NFT can come from three aspects:

Objective practicality: If it represents the rights and interests of tickets, copyrights, digital albums, game props, etc., its value is the value of the actual commodity represented behind it

Statutory: If it represents a digital identity, holding different identities, NFTs can do different businesses on the platform

Emotions and narratives: such as digital art, signatures of best-selling book authors, star debut commemorations, college graduation commemorations, etc.

Most current NFT platforms tend to focus on two small areas, one is digital art, such as visual art; the other is inherent practicality, mainly including copyright and game props. But in fact, the real biggest source of demand and value should be the broader field of emotion and narrative. This is also the broadest and most solid consensus in human society.

This valorization of the consensus on emotion and narrative is not a new thing. Before the advent of the Internet, physical albums, posters, graduation photos, anniversaries, and even ancient family crests, scepters, jade seals, etc. were all the so-called “imaginary community” of the human brain’s physical mapping in the real world. This kind of mapping enables the intangible influence to be transformed into a tangible value carrier, circulating in the physical world, and interacting with the imaginary world.

The emergence of the Internet allows the world to have similar ideas and people with the same emotional cognition can quickly build communities on the Internet. This kind of community is not necessarily a fixed forum. Any social media comment area or even likes can connect a group of people. They have the same cognition, the same value orientation, and recognize the same value in a particular vertical field.

But until the emergence of blockchain and NFT, the value of virtual network construction can be materialized at the lowest cost. This “materialization” is NFT. It is limited, belongs to, and indivisible. It is the physical object of the digital world.

4. Common Misconceptions
Speaking of this, we can finally judge some erroneous perceptions that are now popular one by one. In fact, most of the misunderstanding of NFT comes from the misunderstanding of blockchain or value network. It is basically no problem to replace NFT with Bitcoin in the following part of the problem.

Error: NFT anyone can copy the original image and send it again, so there is no value
Answer: The important thing is not the picture, but the story. It is the story and the emotion that form a consensus. There is no difference in quality between the Kaiguang Yushou sold at the entrance of the temple and the factory tail orders sold on Taobao, but people only consume the former. What everyone pays is what is behind it. Everyone can issue transfer cards, but only those issued by Yang beyond himself are valuable.

Error: NFT pictures must be placed on ipfs, centralized hosting is not acceptable
Answer: Same as above, the picture is not important. The star project CryptoPunks does not even have a link to the picture, only hash. It is certainly better to put relevant resources in decentralized storage, but there is no problem if you don’t put them.

Error: NFT must contain a copyright notice
Answer: There is no value in pirating existing NFTs. Conversely, as long as the community recognizes it, even if it is not an NFT issued by the original copyright owner, there may be a consensus of value.

Mistake: NFT bubble is huge, all scalpers are speculating
Answer: The first half of this sentence is correct. There is obviously a bubble in the NFT market, and the price of NFT is highly operable. But NFT itself is a valuable foundation, and it is not just scalpers who can quarrel. The scalpers have done a better price discovery mechanism, but the final price is determined by collectors who recognize the value of the community.

Mistake: The best platform for NFT is the alliance chain
Answer: There is no point in the alliance chain as NFT, because it does not live long enough. The reason why people are willing to collect NFT is because it possesses the attributes of scarcity and ownership in the era of information internet. The uncertainty and instability of ownership are the most taboo. These two points are precisely the shortcomings of the alliance chain. Imagine that you get a limited NFT for the last concert of your favorite singer on the xx chain. As a result, the chain was closed after two years following the business adjustment of its initiator. How would you feel?

5. The future of NFTs

The future of NFT lies in valuing the consensus of hundreds of millions of communities around the world, and it is advancing at an irresistible pace. Art, games, copyright, etc. are just a small picture of this big future. Soon, influential people, IP parties, organizations will begin to forge and distribute their own NFTs. They are either a signature, or an emoji, or a medal, or a talisman, it will emerge in any form. But it must be highly recognized and valuable by the community. People outside the community may not understand it at all, or even sneer, just like we are now looking at the $69 million Beeple NFT painting.

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